Zhitong Finance APP learned that recently, Standard Chartered released a Bitcoin outlook report for the second half of 2025. The report pointed out that in the third and fourth quarters, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the purchase of Bitcoin by corporate financial departments are expected to exceed the level of the second quarter (245,000 Bitcoins); potential drivers in the third quarter include the early replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the passage of the US Stablecoin Act. In addition, Standard Chartered expects that by the fourth quarter, the market will no longer worry about Bitcoin's halving cycle. Standard Chartered still believes that Bitcoin will rise to about $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and to $200,000 by the end of the fourth quarter.
A rise in the second half of the year would indicate the end of the Bitcoin halving cycle
Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin (BTC) to reach new all-time highs in the second half of the year, driven by rising inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries, as well as policy and regulatory developments in the U.S. Due to rising investor inflows, we believe Bitcoin has escaped its previous dynamic of falling prices 18 months after the “halving cycle” (which would have resulted in a price decline in September-October 2025).
In Q2, Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases totaled 245,000 BTC, a level we expect to be surpassed in both Q3 and Q4. Developments in the U.S. could also support price gains in Q3 — specifically, President Trump’s potential announcement of an early replacement for Fed Chair Powell and the passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill. These developments, combined with evidence of more sovereign interest in Bitcoin, should drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high of around $135,000 in Q3 (up from around $106,000 today).
In Q4, Bitcoin’s halving cycle will come into focus. The latest halving (the scheduled event where the reward for mining new blocks is halved) occurs in April 2024; in past cycles, Bitcoin prices have fallen approximately 18 months after the halving. We believe that prices may be volatile in late Q3 and early Q4 due to concerns about a repeat of this pattern. However, we expect prices to resume their upward trend, supported by continued strong exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and financial buying of Bitcoin, a driver not seen in previous halving cycles. We maintain our year-end forecast of $200,000.
Figure 1: Bitcoin prices have previously peaked between 367 and 547 days after halving
Index = halving day is 100, then take the natural logarithm, x-axis = days
Capital inflows are the main driver
In the second quarter, ETF and Bitcoin Finance purchases totaled 245,000 Bitcoins, and we expect this number to continue to rise;
In the second quarter, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $112,000. While this is below our forecast of $120,000 (see Bitcoin — We Expect a New All-Time High in Q2), it is well above the $85,000 level seen at the beginning of Q1. Strong inflows drove the price gains in Q2 — US spot ETFs saw inflows of $12.4 billion (120,000 BTC) during the quarter, and Bitcoin Finance added 125,000 BTC. This was the second-strongest quarter on record for both categories, second only to Q4 2024, which included the U.S. presidential election. We expect strong inflows to continue in the second half of the year, outpacing the pace of purchases in Q2 and allowing Bitcoin to reach around $135,000 by the end of Q3 and $200,000 by the end of Q4.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
Standard Chartered expects third-quarter ETF purchases to exceed second-quarter levels;
Net purchases of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q2 were 120,000 Bitcoin, second only to the 195,000 Bitcoin net purchases recorded in Q4 2024. In U.S. dollar terms, total net purchases of Bitcoin ETFs since their launch in January 2024 reached $48.7 billion at the end of Q2 (an increase of $12.4 billion this quarter). Equally important as the overall figure, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) hedge funds’ short Bitcoin positions increased by only $1 billion in Q2, compared to $5.1 billion in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs totaled $16.5 billion in Q4.
Subtracting Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) hedge fund short positions from ETF inflows to derive quarterly net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, with inflows in Q2 being almost identical to those in Q4 2024, on par with the strongest quarter on record (Figure 2).
Figure 2: ETF Net Inflows vs. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Hedge Fund Short Positions ($B)
The shift from gold to Bitcoin was also evident in the second quarter. Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs ($12.4 billion) far exceeded the $6.9 billion inflows into gold ETFs (Figure 3). This is all the more noteworthy in a quarter when conflict in the Middle East intensified. We do not view Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge, so the fact that Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeded gold ETF inflows is encouraging. We expect net ETF purchases in the third quarter to exceed those in the second quarter.
Figure 3: ETF net inflows (USD million, 5-day total)
Bitcoin Corporate Finance Department
Standard Chartered expects third quarter Bitcoin financial purchases to exceed second quarter levels
As recently highlighted (see Bitcoin – The Risks of Holding Bitcoin in Corporate Treasury), the Bitcoin Treasury sector – run by companies that buy Bitcoin purely for the purpose of holding it on their balance sheet – has grown rapidly. These companies have become a powerful driver of Bitcoin inflows. While MicroStrategy (MSTR) is a major player in the space, copycats are also gaining ground.
Standard Chartered estimates that net purchases by non-MicroStrategy (MSTR) Bitcoin treasuries were 56,000 Bitcoins in Q2, bringing their total holdings to 107,000 Bitcoins (Figure 4). This is slightly lower than the 69,000 Bitcoins purchased by MicroStrategy (MSTR) in Q2 (Figure 5), although MicroStrategy (MSTR)’s Bitcoin holdings are still 5.5 times larger than all other companies combined. (Our sample of non-MicroStrategy (MSTR) corporate treasuries includes 65 companies that purchased Bitcoin solely for holding in their treasury departments; miners, exchanges, and other players focused on digital assets are excluded.) While MicroStrategy (MSTR)’s purchases have slowed in recent months, the surge in non-MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchases in Q2 suggests that new entrants into the space could fill any vacancies in Q3. As a result, we expect the overall Bitcoin treasury sector to purchase more Bitcoin in Q3 than in Q2—a positive driver of inflows.Other third quarter drivers
Potential changes to the Federal Reserve and the passage of a stablecoin bill are other positive drivers for Bitcoin in the third quarter
Standard Chartered believes that policy and regulatory developments in the United States may also drive Bitcoin prices higher in the third quarter. One driver is President Trump’s recent statement that he will appoint a replacement for Fed Chairman Powell in advance (in October, before Powell’s current term expires in May). This may cause the market to price in more Fed rate cuts in advance and increase investor concerns about the Fed’s independence - both of which are positive for the term premium.
Rising US Treasury term premiums are correlated with Bitcoin prices (Figure 6) and contribute to our view that Bitcoin will hit new all-time highs in Q2. As Trump has explicitly called for Powell to be replaced, and has proposed an October date, we expect developments on this front to further drive Bitcoin higher in Q3.
On the regulatory front, the GENIUS Act, which clarifies U.S. regulation of stablecoins, seems likely to pass in the third quarter. The passage of this law would further expand the use cases of digital assets and bring them deeper into the mainstream (see Stablecoins, Dollar Hegemony, and the U.S. Treasury Act). This could encourage more retail investors to invest in digital assets for the first time, with Bitcoin being the main beneficiary.
Quarterly 13F filings (which institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets must file with the SEC) are due in mid-August and could show further expansion of sovereign buying (see Bitcoin – SEC 13F filings show wider purchases). We believe both confirmation of broader sovereign interest and the inflows themselves are bullish for Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered believes that these drivers, combined with the increased inflows mentioned above, should be enough to drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs in the third quarter. We target a rise to around $135,000.
Other fourth quarter drivers
Overcoming Q4 halving cycle concerns is key to reaching our year-end $200,000 forecast
In late Q3 and early Q4, the halving cycle — and whether previous patterns of associated price declines will repeat themselves — may come into focus. During the previous two halving cycles in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin prices peaked 526 and 547 days after the halving, respectively, before falling sharply. For the latest halving in April 2024, the corresponding dates would be September 28 and October 19, 2025. Some market participants may worry that a similar pattern will occur this time around, especially if Bitcoin prices are at or near all-time highs.
Standard Chartered will be watching the selling (or lack of selling) by long-term holders to see if this scenario plays out. After Bitcoin reached its then-all-time high in early 2021, long-term holders sold 600,000 Bitcoins in a single month. In contrast, the largest selling periods in the current cycle were March-April 2024 (400,000 Bitcoins) and December 2024/January 2025 (200,000 Bitcoins); see Figure 7.
Figure 6: Bitcoin remains correlated with the U.S. Treasury term premium (basis points, left axis; dollars, right axis)
The key this time will be whether increased ETF and Bitcoin Finance inflows will be enough to offset any additional selling from long-term holders. We think they will. In fact, we expect net inflows through these channels to be stronger in Q3 and Q4 than in Q2. In previous halving cycles, these sources of inflows were either non-existent or very small. We believe this should be enough to break the trend of post-halving price peaks followed by sharp declines. Once market concerns about this are resolved, we expect Bitcoin to continue to rise to our forecast of $200,000 by the end of Q4.
Figure 7: Changes in the net position of long-term Bitcoin holders (thousands of Bitcoin, left axis; US dollars, right axis)
“Long-term holders” are defined as holding for more than 155 days