Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a closely watched speech Friday at 10 a.m. ET during the central bank’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, a venue that has historically set the tone for monetary policy in the year ahead.
"Fed chairs have used the symposium in the past to announce changes to the monetary policy outlook," UBS’s Mark Haefele wrote in a note.
"This time last year, Powell said the “time has come for policy to adjust,” opening the door to the start of the current easing cycle," he added.
This year’s remarks come at a pivotal moment, as policymakers weigh the first potential rate cut of 2025 following more than a year of holding borrowing costs steady to assess the impact of tariffs and elevated price pressures.
For months, President Donald Trump has intensified public pressure on the Fed to lower rates, arguing that cuts would stimulate economic growth and reduce interest costs on government debt. His campaign escalated further this week when he called for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook after a Trump administration official accused her of mortgage fraud.
The central bank, however, has so far resisted political demands, maintaining its federal funds rate in a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, levels still near the highest in two decades after the sharp tightening cycle that followed pandemic-era inflation.
Just weeks ago, traders were almost unanimous in expecting a rate cut at the September meeting, but that conviction has since faded.
Futures pricing now implies just under a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction, leaving Powell’s comments on Friday even more critical for shaping expectations.